Aday Mara

Pick 12 · model's rank #24 · consensus #11 · Michigan · Big · 21.2 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 8% [2–16% bootstrap]

Out of league: 15%Fringe: 16%Rotation: 49%Starter: 11%All-Star level: 4%Elite: 4%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

4.9

model EV

7.0

slot-implied EV (pick 12)

7.4

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +1.20)
▲ Positional size(height_in +1.01)
▼ Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -0.90)
▼ Big year-over-year leap, though history trusts players who arrived good over late climbers(d_bpm -0.84)
▲ Finishes twos efficiently(two_pct_shr +0.84)
▲ Plays above the rim(dunk_share +0.72)
▲ NBA-caliber length(wingspan +0.61)
▲ Didn't need big minutes to make his mark, common for young players on deep rosters(min_pct +0.46)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Bruno FernandoFringe
Markieff MorrisRotation
Udoka AzubuikeFringe
Willie Cauley-SteinRotation
Jeff WitheyRotation

Scout's desk

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