What the market missed in 2026

I built a model that grades every college prospect on his college resume alone: what he did on the court, how young he was, how big he was. It never sees mock drafts or where anyone gets picked. Then I compare its grades to the market, meaning where NBA teams actually drafted each player and where the mock-draft consensus ranked him. Most of the time the market is right. But when the model disagrees loudly, history says the model usually wins. Below are this year's loudest disagreements.

The number on each card is the Model value minus what his draft slot has historically returned. Positive means the model prices him above his slot. Full glossary → between what the model thinks the player is worth and what his The average career value a draft slot has returned historically. What that pick costs in value terms. Full glossary →, in career-value points. Bigger number, louder disagreement. Pick numbers and consensus ranks appear everywhere on this site. They are the market's opinion, shown so you can see where the model differs. The model never uses them.

The model wanted more

Cameron Boozer+21.4VS SLOT PRICE

Pick 3 · Duke

· Elite offensive production for the level
· Produced across his whole college career

Caleb Wilson+16.9VS SLOT PRICE

Pick 4 · UNC

· Produced across his whole college career
· Produced as an underclassman

Allen Graves+11.5VS SLOT PRICE

Pick 19 · Santa Clara

· Produced across his whole college career
· Produced as an underclassman

The model would have passed

Bennett Stirtz-3.3VS SLOT PRICE

Pick 16 · Iowa

· Upperclassman, and seniors must dominate to project
· Old for the class, so production gets an age discount

Mikel Brown Jr.-3.1VS SLOT PRICE

Pick 6 · Louisville

· Lead-guard assist volume, mostly already credited through his playmaking numbers
· Small sample of college minutes

Dailyn Swain-2.9VS SLOT PRICE

Pick 15 · Texas

· Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects
· Lives at the rim

The full board

81 players

New here? How to read a row

The colored bar is the model's odds across six career tiers; The model's best guess at his chance of reaching All-Star level or Elite. The range shows how sure it is: a wide spread like 26 to 80 means low confidence, a narrow one means high. Full glossary → is his chance at All-Star level or better. The chip is the model's call: Drafted well below where the model ranked him this class, a bargain on draft rank. Full glossary →, Drafted about where the model ranked him. Full glossary →, or Drafted well above where the model ranked him, a premium on draft rank. Full glossary →. An undrafted player the model liked is a An undrafted player the model rated as draftable. Steal and reach grade where a player was picked, so they don't fit someone who went undrafted; a sleeper is one the whole league passed on but the model would have taken. Full glossary → instead. A player No Division-1 college season on record, so the model cannot grade him. The market's prior is shown instead, as a dashed bar. Full glossary → or with an Too little college data to grade reliably, and no earlier qualifying season to fall back on. Market prices only. Full glossary → shows market prices only. Hover or tap any underlined word for its meaning.

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Never carved out a real NBA role. Full glossary →Stuck on a roster, but barely: spot minutes, not a rotation spot. Full glossary →A real rotation piece, logging regular minutes in the game plan. Full glossary →A full-time starter's workload, night in and night out. Full glossary →Produced at an All-Star level of impact, whether or not he actually made an All-Star team. Full glossary →A tier above All-Star level: the rare, true franchise-cornerstone production peak. Full glossary →

Each segment is the chance his first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier. Full glossary →