The Second Round
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Bennett Stirtz

Pick 16 · model's rank #34 · consensus #17 · Iowa · Guard · 22.7 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 3% [1–8% bootstrap]
Out of league: 23%Fringe: 18%Rotation: 46%Starter: 10%All-Star level: 1%Elite: 1%
Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

3.2

model EV

5.7

slot-implied EV (pick 16)

5.2

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

  • ▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +1.25)
  • ▲ Unheralded recruit who produced anyway, the classic profile the market misses(rec_score +0.82)
  • ▼ No recruiting pedigree on record(rec_missing -0.64)
  • ▼ Old for the class, so production gets an age discount(age_at_draft -0.56)
  • ▼ Takes care of the ball, maybe too well: ultra-safe play historically reads conservative, not creative(tov_pct -0.55)
  • ▼ Trusted with huge minutes, a workhorse profile that has historically topped out lower(min_pct -0.53)
  • ▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +0.51)
  • ▲ Trades the offensive glass for getting back in transition, a trade that has historically paid off for perimeter players(orb_pct +0.50)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

  • Derrick WhiteRotation
  • Kendall WilliamsOut of league
  • Charles JenkinsFringe
  • Dominique JonesFringe
  • Nate WoltersFringe

Scout's desk

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Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.

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FROM THE SCOUTING FILE

“True point guard with an elite feel for the game. One of the smartest players in the draft. Big-time shooter, ultra-reliable, graded out excellent as a pick-and-roll handler (91st percentile) and finishing at the rim (90th). The tools are the problem: solid size but no elite burst, limited rim pressure and separation against NBA athletes, and real questions about who he guards at the point of attack.”

Adapted from Babcock Hoops draft profiles and CBS Sports 2026 draft grades

  • basketball iq +2
  • passing feel +2
  • shooting +2
  • handle creation +1
  • finishing +1
  • athleticism -1
  • perimeter defense -1

Stats prior · P(star) 3%

With this note · P(star) 7%