Bennett Stirtz
Oklahoma City Thunder · Where the model ranks the player within this class by expected value. Full glossary → #45 · The model's rank and expected value frozen on draft night, before any Summer League evidence. Shown next to the current numbers as the receipt: what the model said then, versus what it says now. Full glossary → #39 · Where the pre-draft consensus of mock boards ranked the player. Full glossary → #17 · Iowa · Guard · 22.7 on draft nightFair-value distribution
SL-updated · as of Jul 14 · Chance of reaching All-Star level or better
2% best guess
range 1% to 5% (wider = less sure)
Each segment is the chance his first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier. Full glossary →
2.3
The model's expected career value for a player, on a 0 to 40 scale: 1 is a fringe player, 8 a starter, 20 an All-Star, 40 an all-time great. Full glossary →
5.7
The average career value a draft slot has returned historically. What that pick costs in value terms. Full glossary → (pick 16)
5.2
The career value players ranked where the consensus put him have historically returned. Like slot price, but from the mock-draft consensus instead of his actual pick. Full glossary →
The model's number is his fair price; the other two are what his draft slot and consensus rank usually buy. Hover any underlined term for its meaning.
Summer League
as of Jul 14
5 GP · 27.4 MPG · 14.4 PTS · 1.6 REB · 3.4 AST · 58 TS%
The model's rank and expected value frozen on draft night, before any Summer League evidence. Shown next to the current numbers as the receipt: what the model said then, versus what it says now. Full glossary →: rank #39 · EV 2.6 → after July: rank #45 · EV 2.3
Already folded into the numbers above as These numbers fold in Summer League box scores as reliability-weighted evidence. July minutes are weighted by sample size, and the hotter the summer, the less each extra game adds — history sets that curve, so a great July informs the call but never decides it. Full glossary →: the hotter the July, the less each extra game adds, so a summer informs the call but never decides it.
Why the model prices him here
- ▼ Summer League raised questions: 137 quiet minutes across Las Vegas + Salt Lake City(summer_league -0.18)
- ▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +1.22)
- ▲ Unheralded recruit who produced anyway, the classic profile the market misses(rec_score +0.78)
- ▼ Upperclassman, and seniors must dominate to project(class_ord -0.63)
- ▼ Old for the class, so production gets an age discount(age_at_draft -0.59)
- ▼ Takes care of the ball, maybe too well: ultra-safe play historically reads conservative, not creative(tov_pct -0.59)
- ▼ No recruiting pedigree on record(rec_missing -0.58)
- ▲ Trades the offensive glass for getting back in transition, a trade that has historically paid off for perimeter players(orb_pct +0.55)
- ▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +0.41)
Closest historical college profiles at the player's position, showing the range his profile has produced. Full glossary →
The closest college profiles at his position, showing the range this profile has produced, floor to ceiling. A ★ is an The star marks a real All-Star selection in the player's first four seasons. Full glossary →; the role word (Carries the offense: high usage, the primary creator. Full glossary →, Wins without the ball: complements stars rather than needing volume. Full glossary →, A high-usage secondary star alongside a lead option. Full glossary →) says how he produced it; A career that kept climbing after the four-year window the tiers measure. Full glossary → flags a career that kept climbing.
- Derrick WhiteRotation, later All-Star level
- Charles JenkinsFringe
- Nate WoltersFringe
- Kendall WilliamsOut of league
- Vanja MarinkovićOut of league
Scout's desk
Create a free account to keep your bookWrite what you saw on film, the way you'd tell another scout: "the jumper is real, but he loses his man off the ball." The desk reads your Free text you write about what you saw. The model reads it and nudges the numbers, capped so a note is evidence, never a veto. Full glossary →, scores the skills you mention, and moves his chances a little, never all at once, so one hot take can't flip the board. Save notes to build your book, and your view of him shows up beside the model's across the site.
FROM THE SCOUTING FILE
“True point guard with an elite feel for the game. One of the smartest players in the draft. Big-time shooter, ultra-reliable, graded out excellent as a pick-and-roll handler (91st percentile) and finishing at the rim (90th). The tools are the problem: solid size but no elite burst, limited rim pressure and separation against NBA athletes, and real questions about who he guards at the point of attack.”
Adapted from Babcock Hoops draft profiles and CBS Sports 2026 draft grades
- basketball iq +2
- passing feel +2
- shooting +2
- handle creation +1
- finishing +1
- athleticism -1
- perimeter defense -1
Stats prior · star chance 3%
With this note · star chance 7%