Cameron Boozer
Pick 3 · model's rank #1 · consensus #3 · Duke · Wing · 18.9 on draft nightFair-value distribution
P(star) 93% [81–99% bootstrap]30.8
model EV
11.5
slot-implied EV (pick 3)
11.5
consensus-implied EV
Why the model prices him here
- ▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +2.05)
- ▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +1.41)
- ▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +1.24)
- ▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +1.02)
- ▼ Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -0.83)
- ▲ Defensive value stacks up(dporpag +0.81)
- ▼ Crashes the offensive glass, real value on the margins, though history reads it as a role-player trait more than a star signal(orb_pct -0.55)
- ▲ Produced as an underclassman(class_ord +0.48)
Closest historical profiles
Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats
- Zion WilliamsonElite
- Blake GriffinElite
- Grant WilliamsRotation
- James HardenElite
- Otto Porter Jr.All-Star level
Scout's desk
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FROM THE SCOUTING FILE
“Highest floor in the draft and the ceiling is underrated. Started his career as an at-rim bully and has grown into a face-up threat who pushes in transition and creates his own shot from the perimeter. The knock from front offices is athletic limitation. No run-and-jump pop, and there's a real question whether he guards 4s or 5s at the next level.”
Adapted from ESPN Draft Confidential and Floor & Ceiling scouting notes
- finishing +1
- shooting +1
- athleticism -1
- perimeter defense 0
- rim protection 0
- role translatability +1
Stats prior · P(star) 93%
With this note · P(star) 94%