← Back to the board

Cameron Boozer

Pick 3 · model's rank #1 · consensus #3 · Duke · Wing · 18.9 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 93% [8199% bootstrap]
Out of league: 0%Fringe: 0%Rotation: 0%Starter: 7%All-Star level: 34%Elite: 58%
Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

30.8

model EV

11.5

slot-implied EV (pick 3)

11.5

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

  • Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +2.05)
  • Big overall college impact(bpm_c +1.41)
  • Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +1.24)
  • Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +1.02)
  • Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -0.83)
  • Defensive value stacks up(dporpag +0.81)
  • Crashes the offensive glass, real value on the margins, though history reads it as a role-player trait more than a star signal(orb_pct -0.55)
  • Produced as an underclassman(class_ord +0.48)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

  • Zion WilliamsonElite
  • Blake GriffinElite
  • Grant WilliamsRotation
  • James HardenElite
  • Otto Porter Jr.All-Star level

Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.

Delete this note?

FROM THE SCOUTING FILE

Highest floor in the draft and the ceiling is underrated. Started his career as an at-rim bully and has grown into a face-up threat who pushes in transition and creates his own shot from the perimeter. The knock from front offices is athletic limitation. No run-and-jump pop, and there's a real question whether he guards 4s or 5s at the next level.

Adapted from ESPN Draft Confidential and Floor & Ceiling scouting notes

  • finishing +1
  • shooting +1
  • athleticism -1
  • perimeter defense 0
  • rim protection 0
  • role translatability +1

Stats prior · P(star) 93%

With this note · P(star) 94%