Zuby Ejiofor

Pick 23 · model's rank #25 · consensus #26 · St. John's · Big · 22.2 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 8% [2–16% bootstrap]

Out of league: 15%Fringe: 12%Rotation: 48%Starter: 18%All-Star level: 6%Elite: 1%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

4.8

model EV

3.8

slot-implied EV (pick 23)

3.6

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +1.15)
▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +0.56)
▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +0.56)
▼ Crashes the offensive glass, real value on the margins, though history reads it as a role-player trait more than a star signal(orb_pct -0.51)
▼ Big year-over-year leap, though history trusts players who arrived good over late climbers(d_bpm -0.44)
▼ Upperclassman, and seniors must dominate to project(class_ord -0.38)
▼ Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -0.36)
▲ Finishes twos efficiently(two_pct_shr +0.36)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Xavier Tillman Sr.Rotation
Tyler ZellerRotation
Brice JohnsonOut of league
Marcus MorrisRotation
Jarnell StokesOut of league

Scout's desk

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