The Second Round
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Darryn Peterson

Pick 2 · model's rank #5 · consensus #2 · Kansas · Wing · 19.4 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 34% [8–45% bootstrap]
Out of league: 5%Fringe: 0%Rotation: 22%Starter: 39%All-Star level: 12%Elite: 22%
Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

15.1

model EV

11.9

slot-implied EV (pick 2)

11.9

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

  • ▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.81)
  • ▼ Takes care of the ball, maybe too well: ultra-safe play historically reads conservative, not creative(tov_pct -0.74)
  • ▲ Didn't need big minutes to make his mark, common for young players on deep rosters(min_pct +0.71)
  • ▲ Produced as an underclassman(class_ord +0.48)
  • ▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +0.41)
  • ▲ Trades the offensive glass for getting back in transition, a trade that has historically paid off for perimeter players(orb_pct +0.33)
  • ▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +0.29)
  • ▼ Blue-chip pedigree, though history says hype without matching production disappoints(rec_score -0.29)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

  • Jayson TatumElite
  • Miles BridgesStarter
  • Ignas BrazdeikisFringe
  • Xavier HenryRotation
  • Keldon JohnsonStarter

Scout's desk

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Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.

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FROM THE SCOUTING FILE

“Dynamic 6-6 shotmaker who showed a level of shot-making at Kansas nobody knew existed. Gets to the rim, scores at all levels, and keeps improving as a distributor. Not a complete point guard yet; he may always need a second handler next to him. Medical flag: the durability issues from last season need to be behind him.”

Adapted from ESPN Draft Confidential and Floor & Ceiling scouting notes

  • shooting +2
  • finishing +1
  • handle creation 0
  • passing feel 0
  • frame length +1

Stats prior · P(star) 34%

With this note · P(star) 45%