Kingston Flemings

Pick 8 · model's rank #6 · consensus #9 · Houston · Guard · 19.5 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 34% [10–53% bootstrap]

Out of league: 5%Fringe: 0%Rotation: 22%Starter: 39%All-Star level: 17%Elite: 17%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

14.1

model EV

8.1

slot-implied EV (pick 8)

7.8

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.80)
▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +0.57)
▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +0.56)
▼ Length is ordinary(wingspan -0.55)
▲ Produced as an underclassman(class_ord +0.48)
▲ Defensive value stacks up(dporpag +0.48)
▲ Clean decision-making in the numbers(ast_tov +0.43)
▲ Trades the offensive glass for getting back in transition, a trade that has historically paid off for perimeter players(orb_pct +0.43)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

D'Angelo RussellStarter
Tyler EnnisRotation
De'Aaron FoxStarter
Gary HarrisStarter
Devon DotsonOut of league

Scout's desk

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