AJ Dybantsa
Pick 1 · model's rank #3 · consensus #1 · BYU · Wing · 19.4 on draft nightFair-value distribution
P(star) 50% [26–80% bootstrap]Out of league: 0%Fringe: 0%Rotation: 14%Starter: 37%All-Star level: 16%Elite: 33%
Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.
19.9
model EV
12.9
slot-implied EV (pick 1)
12.9
consensus-implied EV
Why the model prices him here
- ▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +1.49)
- ▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.83)
- ▲ Produced as an underclassman(class_ord +0.48)
- ▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +0.36)
- ▼ Trusted with huge minutes, a workhorse profile that has historically topped out lower(min_pct -0.32)
- ▼ Blue-chip pedigree, though history says hype without matching production disappoints(rec_score -0.29)
- ▲ Drove an efficient offense(adjoe +0.29)
- ▲ Positional size(height_in +0.29)
Closest historical profiles
Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats
- RJ BarrettStarter
- Jamal MurrayStarter
- Luke BabbittFringe
- Alec BurksRotation
- James HardenElite
Scout's desk
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FROM THE SCOUTING FILE
“Legit 6-9 three-level scorer with advanced footwork for creation and real competitiveness. The rare scoring prospect profile. My concern is consistency: too many nights he coasts until the second half, and he still has to prove he can impact winning for 40 minutes, not just take over quarters.”
- shooting +2
- handle creation +1
- finishing +1
- motor compete 0
- basketball iq -1
Stats prior · P(star) 50%
With this note · P(star) 58%