AJ Dybantsa
Washington Wizards · Where the model ranks the player within this class by expected value. Full glossary → #3 · The model's rank and expected value frozen on draft night, before any Summer League evidence. Shown next to the current numbers as the receipt: what the model said then, versus what it says now. Full glossary → #3 · Where the pre-draft consensus of mock boards ranked the player. Full glossary → #1 · BYU · Wing · 19.4 on draft nightFair-value distribution
SL-updated · as of Jul 12 · Chance of reaching All-Star level or better
60% best guess
range 47% to 89% (wider = less sure)
Each segment is the chance his first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier. Full glossary →
23.6
The model's expected career value for a player, on a 0 to 40 scale: 1 is a fringe player, 8 a starter, 20 an All-Star, 40 an all-time great. Full glossary →
12.9
The average career value a draft slot has returned historically. What that pick costs in value terms. Full glossary → (pick 1)
12.9
The career value players ranked where the consensus put him have historically returned. Like slot price, but from the mock-draft consensus instead of his actual pick. Full glossary →
The model's number is his fair price; the other two are what his draft slot and consensus rank usually buy. Hover any underlined term for its meaning.
Summer League
as of Jul 12
2 GP · 25.0 MPG · 25.0 PTS · 7.0 REB · 2.0 AST · 64 TS%
The model's rank and expected value frozen on draft night, before any Summer League evidence. Shown next to the current numbers as the receipt: what the model said then, versus what it says now. Full glossary →: rank #3 · EV 18.2 → after July: rank #3 · EV 23.6
Already folded into the numbers above as These numbers fold in Summer League box scores as reliability-weighted evidence. July minutes are weighted by sample size, and the hotter the summer, the less each extra game adds — history sets that curve, so a great July informs the call but never decides it. Full glossary →: the hotter the July, the less each extra game adds, so a summer informs the call but never decides it.
Why the model prices him here
- ▲ Summer League strengthened the case: 50 productive minutes across Las Vegas(summer_league +0.87)
- ▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +1.45)
- ▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.87)
- ▲ Produced as an underclassman(class_ord +0.79)
- ▲ Drove an efficient offense(adjoe +0.35)
- ▼ Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -0.32)
- ▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +0.29)
- ▼ Blue-chip pedigree, though history says hype without matching production disappoints(rec_score -0.28)
- ▲ Positional size(height_in +0.28)
Closest historical college profiles at the player's position, showing the range his profile has produced. Full glossary →
The closest college profiles at his position, showing the range this profile has produced, floor to ceiling. A ★ is an The star marks a real All-Star selection in the player's first four seasons. Full glossary →; the role word (Carries the offense: high usage, the primary creator. Full glossary →, Wins without the ball: complements stars rather than needing volume. Full glossary →, A high-usage secondary star alongside a lead option. Full glossary →) says how he produced it; A career that kept climbing after the four-year window the tiers measure. Full glossary → flags a career that kept climbing.
- Alec BurksRotation
- RJ BarrettStarter · Engine
- Jamal MurrayStarter · Engine
- Luke BabbittFringe
- T.J. WarrenStarter · Connector
Scout's desk
Create a free account to keep your bookWrite what you saw on film, the way you'd tell another scout: "the jumper is real, but he loses his man off the ball." The desk reads your Free text you write about what you saw. The model reads it and nudges the numbers, capped so a note is evidence, never a veto. Full glossary →, scores the skills you mention, and moves his chances a little, never all at once, so one hot take can't flip the board. Save notes to build your book, and your view of him shows up beside the model's across the site.
FROM THE SCOUTING FILE
“Legit 6-9 three-level scorer with advanced footwork for creation and real competitiveness. The rare scoring prospect profile. My concern is consistency: too many nights he coasts until the second half, and he still has to prove he can impact winning for 40 minutes, not just take over quarters.”
- shooting +2
- handle creation +1
- finishing +1
- motor compete 0
- basketball iq -1
Stats prior · star chance 50%
With this note · star chance 58%