Ebuka Okorie

Pick 17 · model's rank #10 · consensus #23 · Stanford · Guard · 19.2 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 15% [8–36% bootstrap]

Out of league: 5%Fringe: 5%Rotation: 39%Starter: 35%All-Star level: 9%Elite: 7%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

8.5

model EV

5.2

slot-implied EV (pick 17)

3.8

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +1.34)
▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.91)
▼ Takes care of the ball, maybe too well: ultra-safe play historically reads conservative, not creative(tov_pct -0.74)
▼ Undersized for the role(height_in -0.56)
▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +0.55)
▲ Produced as an underclassman(class_ord +0.48)
▲ Trades the offensive glass for getting back in transition, a trade that has historically paid off for perimeter players(orb_pct +0.37)
▲ Quick feet in agility testing(lane_agility_time +0.30)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Shamorie PondsOut of league
Collin SextonStarter
Carsen EdwardsFringe
Markelle FultzRotation
Gary HarrisStarter

Scout's desk

Create a free account to keep your book

Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.