Koa Peat

Pick 30 · model's rank #15 · consensus #27 · Arizona · Wing · 19.4 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 12% [7–36% bootstrap]

Out of league: 8%Fringe: 5%Rotation: 39%Starter: 36%All-Star level: 10%Elite: 2%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

6.9

model EV

3.4

slot-implied EV (pick 30)

3.6

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.82)
▲ Produced as an underclassman(class_ord +0.48)
▼ Takes care of the ball, maybe too well: ultra-safe play historically reads conservative, not creative(tov_pct -0.38)
▲ Didn't need big minutes to make his mark, common for young players on deep rosters(min_pct +0.31)
▼ Blue-chip pedigree, though history says hype without matching production disappoints(rec_score -0.28)
▼ Crashes the offensive glass, real value on the margins, though history reads it as a role-player trait more than a star signal(orb_pct -0.24)
▼ Offensive production below the bar(porpag -0.23)
▲ One college season to judge(n_seasons +0.21)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Keldon JohnsonStarter
Justise WinslowStarter
Miles BridgesStarter
Andrew WigginsStarter
Josh JacksonRotation

Scout's desk

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Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.