Allen Graves

Pick 19 · model's rank #8 · consensus #19 · Santa Clara · Wing · 19.9 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 34% [8–50% bootstrap]

Out of league: 5%Fringe: 0%Rotation: 22%Starter: 39%All-Star level: 23%Elite: 11%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

12.9

model EV

4.6

slot-implied EV (pick 19)

4.6

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +1.14)
▼ Takes care of the ball, maybe too well: ultra-safe play historically reads conservative, not creative(tov_pct -1.01)
▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +0.94)
▲ Unheralded recruit who produced anyway, the classic profile the market misses(rec_score +0.82)
▼ Crashes the offensive glass, real value on the margins, though history reads it as a role-player trait more than a star signal(orb_pct -0.67)
▼ No recruiting pedigree on record(rec_missing -0.64)
▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.62)
▲ Ball-hawk instincts, and steals travel to the NBA(stl_pct +0.51)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Devin VassellStarter
Jordan AdamsOut of league
Derrick BrownRotation
DeJuan BlairRotation
Chuma OkekeRotation

Scout's desk

Create a free account to keep your book

Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.