Brayden Burries

Pick 10 · model's rank #11 · consensus #10 · Arizona · Wing · 20.8 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 14% [6–34% bootstrap]

Out of league: 5%Fringe: 5%Rotation: 39%Starter: 36%All-Star level: 7%Elite: 7%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

8.3

model EV

7.6

slot-implied EV (pick 10)

7.6

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +0.53)
▲ Produced as an underclassman(class_ord +0.48)
▼ Takes care of the ball, maybe too well: ultra-safe play historically reads conservative, not creative(tov_pct -0.45)
▼ Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -0.44)
▲ Trades the offensive glass for getting back in transition, a trade that has historically paid off for perimeter players(orb_pct +0.40)
▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +0.39)
▲ Defensive value stacks up(dporpag +0.37)
▲ Quick feet in agility testing(lane_agility_time +0.37)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Tyler HerroStarter
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeStarter
Wayne EllingtonRotation
Bradley BealStarter
De'Andre HunterStarter

Scout's desk

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Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.