Keaton Wagler

Pick 5 · model's rank #4 · consensus #5 · Illinois · Guard · 19.4 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 46% [25–67% bootstrap]

Out of league: 0%Fringe: 0%Rotation: 19%Starter: 35%All-Star level: 21%Elite: 25%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

17.6

model EV

9.8

slot-implied EV (pick 5)

9.8

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +1.41)
▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +0.96)
▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.83)
▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +0.68)
▲ Produced as an underclassman(class_ord +0.48)
▼ Takes care of the ball, maybe too well: ultra-safe play historically reads conservative, not creative(tov_pct -0.47)
▼ Length is ordinary(wingspan -0.33)
▼ High ortg(ortg -0.32)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Nik StauskasRotation
D'Angelo RussellStarter
Trey BurkeRotation
Gary HarrisStarter
Jordan CrawfordRotation

Scout's desk

Create a free account to keep your book

Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.