The Second Round
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Christian Anderson Jr.

Pick 18 · model's rank #7 · consensus #18 · Texas Tech · Guard · 20.2 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 34% [11–44% bootstrap]
Out of league: 5%Fringe: 0%Rotation: 22%Starter: 39%All-Star level: 22%Elite: 13%
Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

13.2

model EV

4.9

slot-implied EV (pick 18)

4.9

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

  • ▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +1.22)
  • ▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +0.63)
  • ▼ Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -0.55)
  • ▼ Trusted with huge minutes, a workhorse profile that has historically topped out lower(min_pct -0.49)
  • ▲ Turnover-prone, but that's the tax on heavy creation, and history forgives it(tov_pct +0.49)
  • ▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.48)
  • ▼ Undersized for the role(height_in -0.44)
  • ▲ Trades the offensive glass for getting back in transition, a trade that has historically paid off for perimeter players(orb_pct +0.43)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

  • Nik StauskasRotation
  • Reggie JacksonRotation
  • Jared ButlerRotation
  • D'Angelo RussellStarter
  • Shane LarkinRotation

Scout's desk

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Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.

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FROM THE SCOUTING FILE

“Productive lead guard who ran a high-major offense with poise beyond his class. Skeptics point to the level of team success and his slight frame; believers see shotmaking volume and real pull-up range. Undersized, so the margin for error defensively is thin.”

Composite of public draft coverage (consensus board context); statistical profile per Barttorvik

  • handle creation +1
  • shooting +1
  • perimeter defense -1

Stats prior · P(star) 34%

With this note · P(star) 37%