Christian Anderson Jr.

Pick 18 ·

Charlotte Hornets · Where the model ranks the player within this class by expected value. Full glossary → #11 · The model's rank and expected value frozen on draft night, before any Summer League evidence. Shown next to the current numbers as the receipt: what the model said then, versus what it says now. Full glossary → #8 · Where the pre-draft consensus of mock boards ranked the player. Full glossary → #18 · Texas Tech · Guard · 20.2 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

SL-updated · as of Jul 15 · Chance of reaching All-Star level or better

19% best guess

range 6% to 22% (wider = less sure)

Never carved out a real NBA role. Full glossary →8%Stuck on a roster, but barely: spot minutes, not a rotation spot. Full glossary →7%A real rotation piece, logging regular minutes in the game plan. Full glossary →36%A full-time starter's workload, night in and night out. Full glossary →31%Produced at an All-Star level of impact, whether or not he actually made an All-Star team. Full glossary →13%A tier above All-Star level: the rare, true franchise-cornerstone production peak. Full glossary →6%

Each segment is the chance his first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier. Full glossary →

8.6

The model's expected career value for a player, on a 0 to 40 scale: 1 is a fringe player, 8 a starter, 20 an All-Star, 40 an all-time great. Full glossary →

4.9

The average career value a draft slot has returned historically. What that pick costs in value terms. Full glossary → (pick 18)

4.9

The career value players ranked where the consensus put him have historically returned. Like slot price, but from the mock-draft consensus instead of his actual pick. Full glossary →

The model's number is his fair price; the other two are what his draft slot and consensus rank usually buy. Hover any underlined term for its meaning.

Summer League

as of Jul 15

4 GP · 26.5 MPG · 8.5 PTS · 2.2 REB · 3.2 AST · 39 TS%

The model's rank and expected value frozen on draft night, before any Summer League evidence. Shown next to the current numbers as the receipt: what the model said then, versus what it says now. Full glossary →: rank #8 · EV 11.9 → after July: rank #11 · EV 8.6

Already folded into the numbers above as These numbers fold in Summer League box scores as reliability-weighted evidence. July minutes are weighted by sample size, and the hotter the summer, the less each extra game adds — history sets that curve, so a great July informs the call but never decides it. Full glossary →: the hotter the July, the less each extra game adds, so a summer informs the call but never decides it.

Why the model prices him here

▼ Summer League raised questions: 106 quiet minutes across Las Vegas(summer_league -0.74)
▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +1.19)
▼ Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -0.63)
▲ Turnover-prone, but that's the tax on heavy creation, and history forgives it(tov_pct +0.53)
▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.51)
▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +0.50)
▲ Trades the offensive glass for getting back in transition, a trade that has historically paid off for perimeter players(orb_pct +0.47)
▼ Lead-guard assist volume, mostly already credited through his playmaking numbers(ast_x_guard -0.45)
▼ Undersized for the role(height_in -0.42)

Closest historical college profiles at the player's position, showing the range his profile has produced. Full glossary →

The closest college profiles at his position, showing the range this profile has produced, floor to ceiling. A ★ is an The star marks a real All-Star selection in the player's first four seasons. Full glossary →; the role word (Carries the offense: high usage, the primary creator. Full glossary →, Wins without the ball: complements stars rather than needing volume. Full glossary →, A high-usage secondary star alongside a lead option. Full glossary →) says how he produced it; A career that kept climbing after the four-year window the tiers measure. Full glossary → flags a career that kept climbing.

Jared ButlerRotation
Reggie JacksonRotation
Nik StauskasRotation
D'Angelo RussellStarter ★ · Engine
Landry ShametRotation

Scout's desk

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Write what you saw on film, the way you'd tell another scout: "the jumper is real, but he loses his man off the ball." The desk reads your Free text you write about what you saw. The model reads it and nudges the numbers, capped so a note is evidence, never a veto. Full glossary →, scores the skills you mention, and moves his chances a little, never all at once, so one hot take can't flip the board. Save notes to build your book, and your view of him shows up beside the model's across the site.

FROM THE SCOUTING FILE

“Productive lead guard who ran a high-major offense with poise beyond his class. Skeptics point to the level of team success and his slight frame; believers see shotmaking volume and real pull-up range. Undersized, so the margin for error defensively is thin.”

Composite of public draft coverage (consensus board context); statistical profile per Barttorvik

handle creation +1
shooting +1
perimeter defense -1

Stats prior · star chance 34%

With this note · star chance 37%