Morez Johnson Jr.

Pick 9 · model's rank #22 · consensus #13 · Michigan · Big · 20.4 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 8% [3–17% bootstrap]

Out of league: 15%Fringe: 12%Rotation: 48%Starter: 18%All-Star level: 4%Elite: 4%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

5.3

model EV

7.8

slot-implied EV (pick 9)

6.7

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▼ Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -1.09)
▲ Finishes twos efficiently(two_pct_shr +0.73)
▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +0.71)
▼ Crashes the offensive glass, real value on the margins, though history reads it as a role-player trait more than a star signal(orb_pct -0.57)
▲ NBA-caliber length(wingspan +0.41)
▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.41)
▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +0.40)
▲ Quick feet in agility testing(lane_agility_time +0.37)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Jalen SmithRotation
Wendell Carter Jr.Starter
Onyeka OkongwuRotation
Jahlil OkaforRotation
P.J. WashingtonStarter

Scout's desk

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Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.