Dailyn Swain

Pick 15 · model's rank #16 · consensus #21 · Texas · Wing · 20.9 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 11% [5–13% bootstrap]

Out of league: 15%Fringe: 7%Rotation: 49%Starter: 18%All-Star level: 5%Elite: 6%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

6.4

model EV

6.1

slot-implied EV (pick 15)

4.1

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▼ Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -0.62)
▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +0.51)
▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +0.42)
▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +0.40)
▲ Finishes twos efficiently(two_pct_shr +0.32)
▲ Took on a bigger role and kept producing(d_usg +0.28)
▲ Turnover-prone, but that's the tax on heavy creation, and history forgives it(tov_pct +0.27)
▼ Lives at the rim(rim_share -0.21)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Josh HartRotation
Josh HartRotation
Grant WilliamsRotation
Kevin HuerterStarter
Chuma OkekeRotation

Scout's desk

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