Yaxel Lendeborg

Pick 11 · model's rank #13 · consensus #12 · Michigan · Wing · 23.7 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 12% [5–30% bootstrap]

Out of league: 8%Fringe: 5%Rotation: 48%Starter: 28%All-Star level: 6%Elite: 6%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

7.2

model EV

7.4

slot-implied EV (pick 11)

7.0

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +1.33)
▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +1.06)
▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +1.02)
▼ Old for the class, so production gets an age discount(age_at_draft -0.98)
▼ Takes care of the ball, maybe too well: ultra-safe play historically reads conservative, not creative(tov_pct -0.85)
▲ Unheralded recruit who produced anyway, the classic profile the market misses(rec_score +0.82)
▼ Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -0.77)
▼ No recruiting pedigree on record(rec_missing -0.64)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Jae CrowderRotation
Aaron WhiteOut of league
Dylan WindlerFringe
Mikal BridgesAll-Star level
Cameron JohnsonAll-Star level

Scout's desk

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