Nate Ament

Pick 13 · model's rank #9 · consensus #8 · Tennessee · Wing · 19.5 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 15% [5–42% bootstrap]

Out of league: 5%Fringe: 5%Rotation: 39%Starter: 35%All-Star level: 8%Elite: 7%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

8.6

model EV

6.7

slot-implied EV (pick 13)

8.1

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.77)
▲ Produced as an underclassman(class_ord +0.48)
▼ Struggles to convert inside the arc(two_pct_shr -0.47)
▲ Efficiency concerns, though history is kinder to imperfect volume scorers than the stat suggests(ts +0.44)
▲ Positional size(height_in +0.41)
▼ Blue-chip pedigree, though history says hype without matching production disappoints(rec_score -0.29)
▼ Offensive impact numbers lag(obpm_c -0.27)
▲ NBA-caliber length(wingspan +0.22)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Jayson TatumElite
Bismack BiyomboRotation
Andrew WigginsStarter
Brandon IngramStarter
Keldon JohnsonStarter

Scout's desk

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Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.

FROM THE SCOUTING FILE

“Great overlap of positional size, fluidity, and touch. Soft natural hands, a high release point, and a terrific left hand. From mid-January on he scored like a lottery pick and hit 39% from three. He badly needs strength: plays upright without much bend, and physicality bothers him on both ends.”

Adapted from CBS Sports 2026 draft grades and Bleacher Report (Wasserman) profiles

shooting +2
handle creation +1
finishing +1
frame length +1
athleticism -1
perimeter defense -1
rim protection -1
motor compete -1

Stats prior · P(star) 15%

With this note · P(star) 18%