Mikel Brown Jr.
Pick 6 · model's rank #21 · consensus #6 · Louisville · Guard · 20.2 on draft nightFair-value distribution
P(star) 8% [3–25% bootstrap]5.3
model EV
9.2
slot-implied EV (pick 6)
9.2
consensus-implied EV
Why the model prices him here
- ▲ Didn't need big minutes to make his mark, common for young players on deep rosters(min_pct +0.86)
- ▲ Trades the offensive glass for getting back in transition, a trade that has historically paid off for perimeter players(orb_pct +0.57)
- ▲ Produced as an underclassman(class_ord +0.48)
- ▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.48)
- ▲ Turnover-prone, but that's the tax on heavy creation, and history forgives it(tov_pct +0.38)
- ▼ Lead-guard assist volume, mostly already credited through his playmaking numbers(ast_x_guard -0.34)
- ▼ Big assist volume, mostly already credited through his decision-making numbers(ast_pct -0.29)
- ▼ Small sample of college minutes(mp_total -0.29)
Closest historical profiles
Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats
- Coby WhiteStarter
- David MichineauOut of league
- Collin SextonStarter
- Cole AnthonyStarter
- De'Aaron FoxStarter
Scout's desk
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FROM THE SCOUTING FILE
“Combo-guard scoring punch. Broke the ACC freshman scoring record with a 45-point, ten-three night, and his half-court finishing (nearly 69% at the rim) answered his biggest pre-season question. But he needs serious strength work, and the back issues are scary: eight games missed midseason and it resurfaced to end his year. Assist numbers undersell his passing because of how Louisville staggered his minutes.”
Adapted from CBS Sports 2026 draft grades and Bleacher Report (Wasserman) profiles
- shooting +2
- finishing +2
- frame length -1
- passing feel +1
Stats prior · P(star) 8%
With this note · P(star) 13%