Hannes Steinbach

Pick 14 · model's rank #12 · consensus #14 · Washington · Big · 20.2 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 11% [7–31% bootstrap]

Out of league: 7%Fringe: 5%Rotation: 45%Starter: 33%All-Star level: 5%Elite: 5%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

7.3

model EV

6.4

slot-implied EV (pick 14)

6.4

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +0.91)
▼ Crashes the offensive glass, real value on the margins, though history reads it as a role-player trait more than a star signal(orb_pct -0.71)
▼ Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -0.66)
▲ Finishes twos efficiently(two_pct_shr +0.55)
▲ Positional size(height_in +0.53)
▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.52)
▲ Produced as an underclassman(class_ord +0.48)
▲ Defensive value stacks up(dporpag +0.37)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Deandre AytonStarter
Marvin Bagley IIIRotation
Cody ZellerRotation
Jahlil OkaforRotation
Jalen SmithRotation

Scout's desk

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Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.