Caleb Wilson

Pick 4 · model's rank #2 · consensus #4 · UNC · Big · 19.9 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 62% [36–81% bootstrap]

Out of league: 0%Fringe: 0%Rotation: 16%Starter: 22%All-Star level: 26%Elite: 36%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

21.9

model EV

10.5

slot-implied EV (pick 4)

10.5

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +0.83)
▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +0.76)
▲ Plays above the rim(dunk_share +0.67)
▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.61)
▼ Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -0.55)
▲ Didn't need big minutes to make his mark, common for young players on deep rosters(min_pct +0.51)
▲ Finishes twos efficiently(two_pct_shr +0.50)
▲ Produced as an underclassman(class_ord +0.48)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Onyeka OkongwuRotation
Wendell Carter Jr.Starter
Marvin Bagley IIIRotation
Cody ZellerRotation
Evan MobleyElite

Scout's desk

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Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.

FROM THE SCOUTING FILE

“Explosive athlete with a go-go-go motor and a 7-foot wingspan who thrived at the rim and in transition all season. The question is what happens when he isn't dunking. Can he finish through contact with touch, and can he create anything rather than just finishing plays? A bit one-note offensively at UNC.”

Adapted from CBS Sports 2026 draft grades and Bleacher Report (Wasserman) profiles

athleticism +2
frame length +2
motor compete +2
handle creation -1

Stats prior · P(star) 62%

With this note · P(star) 71%