Amari Allen

Undrafted · model's rank #19 · Wing · 20.4 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 13% [3–29% bootstrap]

Out of league: 8%Fringe: 7%Rotation: 52%Starter: 20%All-Star level: 12%Elite: 1%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

5.9

model EV

0.7

slot-implied EV (undrafted)

—

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▲ Produced as an underclassman(class_ord +0.48)
▲ Young for the class, and time is on his side(age_at_draft +0.41)
▼ Lives at the rim(rim_share -0.35)
▼ Takes care of the ball, maybe too well: ultra-safe play historically reads conservative, not creative(tov_pct -0.34)
▲ High max vertical leap(max_vertical_leap +0.34)
▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +0.33)
▲ Didn't need big minutes to make his mark, common for young players on deep rosters(min_pct +0.30)
▲ Quick feet in agility testing(lane_agility_time +0.30)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Miles BridgesStarter
Luka ŠamanićOut of league
Isaac OkoroStarter
Justise WinslowStarter
Rawle AlkinsOut of league

Scout's desk

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Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.