Flory Bidunga

Undrafted · model's rank #20 · Big · 21.1 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 12% [4–31% bootstrap]

Out of league: 16%Fringe: 7%Rotation: 48%Starter: 18%All-Star level: 11%Elite: 1%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

5.4

model EV

0.7

slot-implied EV (undrafted)

—

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▼ Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -0.77)
▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +0.75)
▲ Finishes twos efficiently(two_pct_shr +0.67)
▲ Plays above the rim(dunk_share +0.66)
▲ Defensive value stacks up(dporpag +0.49)
▼ Crashes the offensive glass, real value on the margins, though history reads it as a role-player trait more than a star signal(orb_pct -0.43)
▲ NBA-caliber length(wingspan +0.39)
▲ Positional size(height_in +0.29)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Jalen SmithRotation
Onyeka OkongwuRotation
Evan MobleyElite
Jordan BellFringe
Montrezl HarrellAll-Star level

Scout's desk

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Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.