Henri Veesaar

Pick 52 · model's rank #18 · consensus #31 · UNC · Wing · 22.2 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 13% [4–30% bootstrap]

Out of league: 8%Fringe: 7%Rotation: 52%Starter: 20%All-Star level: 10%Elite: 2%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

6.2

model EV

0.9

slot-implied EV (pick 52)

3.3

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▼ Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -0.95)
▲ Finishes twos efficiently(two_pct_shr +0.67)
▲ Positional size(height_in +0.65)
▲ Plays above the rim(dunk_share +0.58)
▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +0.45)
▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +0.45)
▼ Old for the class, so production gets an age discount(age_at_draft -0.36)
▼ Takes care of the ball, maybe too well: ultra-safe play historically reads conservative, not creative(tov_pct -0.32)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Rui HachimuraStarter
Moritz WagnerRotation
Sam DekkerRotation
Mikal BridgesAll-Star level
Aaron WhiteOut of league

Scout's desk

Create a free account to keep your book

Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.