Maliq Brown

Pick 44 · model's rank #23 · consensus #50 · Duke · Wing · 22.6 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 8% [2–43% bootstrap]

Out of league: 14%Fringe: 15%Rotation: 46%Starter: 17%All-Star level: 5%Elite: 3%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

5.0

model EV

1.9

slot-implied EV (pick 44)

1.1

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▼ Offensive production below the bar(porpag -1.24)
▲ Plays above the rim(dunk_share +1.20)
▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +1.09)
▲ Turnover-prone, but that's the tax on heavy creation, and history forgives it(tov_pct +0.98)
▲ Finishes twos efficiently(two_pct_shr +0.68)
▲ Didn't need big minutes to make his mark, common for young players on deep rosters(min_pct +0.68)
▼ Ultra-efficient scorer, a college stat that historically flatters more than it projects(ts -0.64)
▲ Ball-hawk instincts, and steals travel to the NBA(stl_pct +0.58)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Victor OladipoStarter
Thon MakerRotation
Chuma OkekeRotation
Goran SutonOut of league
Herbert JonesStarter

Scout's desk

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