Tyler Tanner

Undrafted · model's rank #17 · Guard · 20.4 on draft night

Fair-value distribution

P(star) 11% [7–35% bootstrap]

Out of league: 7%Fringe: 5%Rotation: 46%Starter: 31%All-Star level: 11%Elite: 1%

Out of leagueFringeRotationStarterAll-Star levelEliteEach bar is the model's chance the player's first 4 NBA seasons land in that tier.

6.3

model EV

0.7

slot-implied EV (undrafted)

—

consensus-implied EV

Why the model prices him here

▲ Elite offensive production for the level(porpag +1.02)
▲ Unheralded recruit who produced anyway, the classic profile the market misses(rec_score +0.82)
▼ Undersized for the role(height_in -0.80)
▲ Strong offensive impact numbers(obpm_c +0.70)
▼ No recruiting pedigree on record(rec_missing -0.64)
▲ Big overall college impact(bpm_c +0.54)
▼ Takes care of the ball, maybe too well: ultra-safe play historically reads conservative, not creative(tov_pct -0.51)
▼ Length is ordinary(wingspan -0.49)

Closest historical profiles

Same position group, matched on career-predictive stats

Nate WoltersFringe
Shamorie PondsOut of league
Mason JonesOut of league
Pierre JacksonOut of league
Norris ColeRotation

Scout's desk

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Write what you saw on film. The system reads it against a fixed checklist of skills and nudges the numbers. The update is capped, so a note is evidence, never a veto.